Trump’s Patriot Missile Pledge A Boost To Ukraine: Will Kremlin Tweak War Playbook
Russia fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Ukraine, killing at least two people and wounding 19.
The latest missile strikes came after the US pledged to give Kyiv the permission to produce Patriot missiles and Trump seemingly reversed his stance on the issue, mounting pressure on Kremlin.
“We’re going to give a license to you (Ukraine) to make Patriot missiles,” Trump said Wednesday.
On Saturday, a reported missile strike on Odesa killed two and wounded one, while a drone attack on a building in Kharkiv injured seven. Moscow deployed ballistic missiles and specialised drone swarms in districts across Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, wounding at least 11 civilians and damaging critical infrastructure.
Reports say the intense strikes exposed the vulnerability of Kyiv’s airspace as the nation scrambles with depleted air defence stockpiles, hoping for Western military assistance.
Moscow has not sounded an alarm over the Patriot missile development, but has said this will make a peaceful resolution more difficult.
Ukraine has been long rooting for Patriot missile interceptors, which it sees as essential to counter Russian missile onslaughts.
Russia has been forced to review its war strategy in the wake of these developments, The Washington Post reported.
But despite the assurances, a timeline for Ukraine to kickstart production is not available. Kyiv has said it will attempt to kickstart domestic production as soon as possible.
Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, was quoted as saying by a news outlet that short-term benefits are unlikely for Ukraine. It may not get anything to counter the marauding Russians from America’s stockpile of weapons immediately.
Ukraine’s options include producing cheaper and simpler missiles, which may take less than a year, according to Mitrokhin.
An Associated Press report quoted experts and Ukrainian officials as saying that turning Trump’s pledge into into real weapons would possibly take years for Kyiv .
Getting a production license would not enable Ukraine to manufacture complete Patriot batteries, including launchers, radar systems, command posts and missiles, according to the report.
Trump has not spelt out the details, but the AP report says a potential agreement would cover narrower parts of the system, such as interceptor missiles, final assembly from imported component kits or production of selected components.
The other aspects of an agreement, including technical documentation, training for specialists, supplier contacts and foreign consultants to help launch manufacturing of the Patriot missiles would be time consuming.
The first step in the Patriot missile agrrement would likely be limited in scope and would not involve full domestic production in Ukraine.
The US president’s wording on the issue was ambiguous, Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, development director of the Fly Group Ukraine defense company, said
Trump broadly referred to producing “Patriots”. It was not clear if the US President meant missiles, launchers, radar systems, command centers or components, according to Khrapchynskyi.
Missile production alone involves a huge paraphernalia and a vast supply chain, according to Khrapchynskyi. This involves hundreds of companies making parts such as control surfaces, engines, guidance systems and communications equipment, he said.
Though Moscow did not view the move as an ‘escalation,’ it was clear that Russia was miffed by the announcement.
Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said there were “certain misconceptions within the White House administration … regarding the idea that escalation and military pressure can help pave the way for a peaceful settlement.”
On Friday, Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov also admitted in a message on Telegram that the move is still a boost to Ukraine.
“Ukraine managed to reconfigure the anti-Russian alliance into a new alignment — one far more advantageous for itself and increasingly threatening to Russia,” he wrote.
Despite not divulging details of the pledge to Ukraine, the Trump administration is making efforts to significantly speedup and and expand Patriot production. The US move is aimed at meeting growing demand from countries including Ukraine. It is keen to form industrial partnerships with allies and partners to deliver Patriots across the globe.
