Nine Linked Polymarket Accounts Have Racked Up Millions Betting On U.S. Military Action: Report
Several connected Polymarket accounts have come under scrutiny after wagering more than $2.4 million on U.S. military action, according to a new report.
The nine accounts have a 98 percent win rate after making more than 80 bets, CBS News reported. The network noted that the person or people behind the accounts have bet on several aspects of the Iran war, including when U.S. strikes would begin, the removal of Iranian leadership, and the announcement of a ceasefire.
“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman told the outlet. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
Overall, more than $1 billion has been bet on U.S. military decisions and actions.
Concern about prediction markets and the potential for people to use insider information to win bets has been on the rise. The markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, allow users to make a wide range of predictions regarding politics, sports, and global events.
One such case involved U.S. Army Soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was charged in April in an alleged insider trading scheme. The Justice Department alleges that he made $400,000 trading on Polymarket by using classified information regarding the timing of a U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
Polymarket says that it has taken action to prevent such abuses and referenced Van Dyke’s arrest as an example of the effectiveness of its countermeasures.
“Polymarket has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics into a unified system,” the company said in a statement to CBS News.
“The indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a demonstration of our commitment in practice. Polymarket identified the activity, referred it to authorities, and the system worked. Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,” Polymarket said the statement.
Several lawmakers have proposed measures to regulate and reign in gambling on via prediction markets.
U.S. Senators John Curtis (R-UT) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. That legislation specifically targets sports betting through the markets and whether they should be treated as commodity brokerages or as gambling websites.
In April, the Senate passed rules banning members and their staff from using the markets.
Another bipartisan piece of legislation was proposed in April U.S. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Dave McCormick (R-PA). The bill would more broadly lay out a regulatory framework for prediction markets.
It would, among other things, ban political insider trading, create insider trading standards, and create financial regulations and protections for users.
