Lingering Supply Risks Could Push Crude Higher Again Despite U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Analysts Warn

Oil prices have largely erased the sharp gains triggered by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict. Still, energy analysts warn the market may be underestimating the lingering risks to global oil supplies, particularly as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded below $74 per barrel on Tuesday morning after spiking to almost $120 during the height of the conflict in late April, according to CNBC. The decline reflects optimism that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran will hold and that diplomatic efforts could prevent a broader regional war.

Perhaps the biggest concern continues to be the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait, making it one of the most strategically important shipping routes on the planet. Any disruption there has immediate implications for global energy prices. Despite the ceasefire, shipping traffic has yet to return to pre-conflict levels.

Nikos Petrakakos, managing director of investments at Tufton Investment Management, told CNBC that many shipping companies remain reluctant to send vessels back through the strait because of ongoing security concerns.

Even though traffic has improved since the ceasefire, he said the region is still dealing with uncertainty over the durability of the peace agreement, the possibility of sea mines, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Insurance remains one of the industry’s biggest obstacles. “Even though there is some more motion going on, in general, we’re nowhere near being back to where it was,” Petrakakos told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday.

According to Petrakakos, insurers are unlikely to significantly reduce premiums until they see months of sustained stability rather than a ceasefire that exists only on paper. He compared the situation to the prolonged security concerns created by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, where elevated insurance costs persisted long after initial hostilities began.

Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, said the issue is no longer simply allowing vessels already trapped in the region to leave. The greater challenge is that “Shipping costs are incredibly high right now, and you still can’t find enough shippers willing to go back out in there.”

Analysts also believe Iran could continue using the Strait of Hormuz as a source of political leverage even without formally disrupting shipping. Petrakakos said Tehran appears interested in asserting greater influence over vessel movements through the waterway, though most international shipping companies are reluctant to engage directly with Iranian authorities because doing so could expose them to future sanctions.

Sen said Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Western governments would strongly oppose any arrangement requiring shipping companies to pay Iran directly for passage. Instead, she believes Tehran is using its position to demonstrate that it retains influence over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints as it seeks resources for post-war reconstruction.

Beyond immediate shipping concerns, analysts say that rebuilding global inventories could support oil prices over the coming months. Aldo Spanjer, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas Markets 360, said, “The narrative that’s come into the market is: ‘How are we going to backfill all the stocks we’ve taken out?'” he said. “Every importer in the world is going to build higher stocks.”

Importers around the world are expected to rebuild strategic reserves, creating additional demand that could absorb increased production if more supplies reach the market. Spanjer continues to forecast Brent crude reaching around $80 per barrel by the end of the year, arguing that demand from inventory rebuilding should provide support even if additional oil enters global markets.

Looking further ahead, he expects crude to trade within a range of $75 to $85 per barrel during 2027. He believes prices are unlikely to move much higher because buyers would hesitate to accumulate inventories above $85 per barrel. At the same time, prices below $75 could encourage opportunistic purchasing, creating a floor for the market.