Iran Sees Hormuz As Trump’s Waterloo. That May Not Be The Case.

Battle-hardened Iran has pinned all its hopes on defying the US in the Middle East conflict on a narrow choke point. Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is giving it an unexpected leverage in the war against the US. But the strategy could also backfire and throw up surprises as wars rarely turn out as expected, the Associated Press reports.

A section of Iran’s leaders feel Tehran is nearing victory and it won’t require the same epic patience, according to the report.

The premise is that military pressure will ultimately force the US to accept Tehran’s control over the crucial waterway for global energy. Iran also believes time is on its side.

It sees reports about diminishing stockpiles of key US ammunition, including advanced missile interceptors, as a major factor that is working against any misadventure by Washington.

The deep unpopularity of the Middle East conflict that is playing out in the minds of the ordinary Americans ahead of the November mid-terms is also emboldening Iran.
Iran’s nuclear program has been successfully relegated to the background at least for now.

“The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran’s interests,” said Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz would give Iran leverage in case the nuclear talks resume, according to him.

The Islamic Republic is more than certain that as long as it shuts the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil was routed before the war, it will succeed in stoking inflationary concerns globally. That would, in turn, ramp up pressure on the US as prices of gas and other goods will remain well above the comfort level ahead of the November US congressional elections.

If the US were to try and force the Iranians to open the waterway, Washington would have to deploy ground troops in Iran’s hostile terrain. That would be a risky proposition and would attract widespread backlash for President Donald Trump in the US.

Iran is also betting on its backing of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, whom it is prodding to widen the war and disrupt another major trade route. All these calculations project Hormuz as Trump’s Waterloo.

Except that this may not be the case.

The report points to the US’ own calculation of reaping rewards of a quick war that went awry. Iran’s leaders need only look to how Trump’s “short-term excursion” to the Middle East has bogged down to be reminded that wars rarely turn out as expected, according to the AP report.

The strategy poses risk as the US war has heaped misery on Tehran on multiple counts.

President Trump has repeatedly pointed out that strikes have decimated Iran’s top leadership, navy and air force. Even new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in extremely critical condition and could die imminently, according to a new report.

Khamenei has not been seen or heard since the February 28 attack that began the war with the U.S. and Iran. He was in the same compound as his father, deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders who were killed in the attack.

Iran’s own economy is in shambles. And Iranians who hit the streets in protests against the regime could trigger an uprising again. These are factors which could upset Tehran’s calculations. Moreover, there is a reported power struggle in Iranian administration between factions vying for control of the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s industrial base has also crumbled in the US-Israeli pounding.

The oil exports that feed its economy have been chocked by the US Naval blockade. There are others who think Iran’s gains in war should be tapped to open a window of opportunity to end the conflict. If economic recovery doesn’t happen soon, it may lead to unrest and turmoil, according to Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal.

“Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America,” he said.

“It’s unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions,” he said.