Iran Can Survive Strait Of Hormuz Blockade For Three To Four Months, CIA Analysis Concludes

The Iranian regime can survive the U.S.’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for three to four more months, a new CIA analysis showed.

The document, reported by The Washington Post, says only then the country would face more severe economic hardship.

It also claimed that Tehran still has about 75% of its mobile launchers and 70% of its missile stockpile from before the war. That would mean the U.S. and Israel’s efforts to degrade the country’s military capabilities would not have been overwhelmingly successful. It also stands in contrast with President Donald Trump’s recent claim that the country has less than 20% of its pre-war stockpile.

An official also told the outlet that the regime has recovered or reopened most of its underground facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even build some new ones.

Another intelligence official, however, highlighted the impact of the ongoing blockade: “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding.”

The U.S. is still maintaining the blockade even as talks aimed at ending the war reportedly making progress. However, its operation to help ships transit through the Strait of Hormuz was terminated following backlash from Saudi Arabia, according to a new report.

NBC News detailed that Riyadh told Washington it would prevent it from using its bases in the country to carry out the operation after the announcement about “Project Freedom” took its leadership by surprise.

The outlet went on to detail that a conversation between President Donald Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to address concerns and led to an end to the operation so the U.S. could regain access to the country’s airspace.

Trump announced on Tuesday he was stopping the operation to guarantee safe passage of the ships as there was progress in the broader negotiations to end the war.

He said in a social media publication that “based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries,” as well as the fact that “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.”

Pakistani mediators are optimistic about progress being made to end the war, according to another report.

CNN detailed that the White House received positive feedback on the matter. Citing a source familiar with the matter, the outlet said President Donald Trump appears to be simplifying issues related to the negotiations so moderates in Tehran will return to the negotiating table.

Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing the proposal and is expected to provide its response to Pakistani mediators on Thursday.