Goldman Sachs claims renminbi undervalued by 20% against US dollar

Published Mon, May 11, 2026 · 12:16 PM

[HONG KONG] The Chinese currency is more than 20 per cent undervalued against the US dollar, according to Goldman Sachs Group, which expects the currency to keep strengthening over the coming year.

The renminbi remains well below levels justified by China’s export strength and external surplus, strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi said. They now see it at 6.80 in three months, 6.70 in six months and 6.50 in a year, up from 6.85, 6.80 and 6.70 previously. The currency is currently trading at around 6.80.

“China’s external surplus is approaching unprecedented levels as a percentage of global GDP, reflecting deep levels of export competitiveness, and also a highly undervalued currency, with currency appreciation an equilibrium outcome of those forces,” the strategists wrote in a note dated on May 8.

The renminbi is near its strongest level against the US dollar since early 2023, buoyed by improving US-China ties and weakness in the greenback. Other Wall Street banks have also predicted further gains, with JPMorgan Asset Management saying that a “productive” summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping may be a catalyst that pushes the renminbi to 6.50.

Goldman said while the meeting could be important in helping to stabilise trade relations, the case for a stronger renminbi is “more fundamental and longer-lasting”. Trump and Xi are scheduled for talks on Thursday and Friday in Beijing.

The bank added that the strength in recent People’s Bank of China fixings and a rise in exporter conversion ratios also suggest that “a gradual but sustained move is still the right baseline”. BLOOMBERG