Donald Trump approval rating suddenly changes direction
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has sharply reversed course, according to data from a new national poll.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Newsweek: “The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”
Why It Matters
Trump’s approval rating has returned to the 50 percent mark in the latest InsiderAdvantage national survey—its highest level in weeks—after a period of volatility driven by immigration enforcement controversies in Minneapolis.
It contrasts with national polling averages that continue to show Trump underwater, highlighting a split between individual polls and aggregated trend lines that will likely shape both parties’ midterm strategies.
What To Know
A new InsiderAdvantage national survey found Trump at 50 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval among likely voters after a week of political turbulence, reversing a recent dip, according to the pollster.
The shift represents a 7‑point rebound from a dip the same pollster recorded immediately after a shooting in which Border Patrol and Customs and Border Protection agents killed a Minnesota man during an immigration enforcement operation—a flash point that triggered widespread protests, national scrutiny and a change in federal leadership on the ground.
It offers a case study in timing effects after high‑salience events, with the Minneapolis shooting of Alex Pretti creating a shifting backdrop as fully post‑event polling enters the field, according to InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery.
He said: “In our latest round of polling (over the past two weeks) we have seen Trump’s approval drop to a 43 percent immediately following the shooting and death of a man by ICE agents in Minnesota, only to rebound to the 50 percent level following a replacement of leadership of ICE efforts in that state.”
Towery said he viewed this shift as a “back and forth of the same margins of the last presidential contest.”
“Certain issues arise and his numbers fall slightly, then other events take place and return to higher numbers,” he added.
InsiderAdvantage surveyed 1,000 likely voters from January 31 to February 1 using a mixed‑mode text and online panel, weighted by age, race, gender and party, with a margin of error of 3.09 percentage points.
The poll reported 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval and 1 percent with no opinion on Trump’s job performance.
Compared with an InsiderAdvantage survey conducted November 20-21 of 800 likely voters, which found 44 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval and 7 percent undecided with a 3.46‑point margin of error and mixed-mode cell or text methodology, Trump’s approval rose 6 points and undecideds fell by 6 points.
At the time, Towery described Trump’s standing as recovering after a difficult period but highlighted significant weaknesses: 33 percent of independents approved of his performance, and the president had lost some support among younger voters and Hispanic/Latino respondents.
The large pool of undecided voters—7 percent—was seen as fluid, potentially poised to settle after the release of Epstein‑related documents and renewed attention to affordability issues.
Since then, Trump’s approval has risen 6 points, and the undecided share has effectively evaporated.
But the InsiderAdvantage rebound lands against a wider polling backdrop that has shown Trump under mounting pressure.
RealClearPolling’s approval rating average stood at 42.6 percent approval and 54.6 percent disapproval as of February 4, and The New York Times‘ tracker showed 41 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval.
Similarly, Nate Silver’s tracker put Trump’s net approval at -14.3 on February 3—just shy of his second‑term low of -15—signaling that more Americans disapproved than approved and highlighting the persistent political headwinds facing the White House and GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms.
State‑level Civiqs data reviewed by Newsweek suggested subtle but broad disapproval edges in key battlegrounds after the Pretti shooting, including Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
What People Are Saying
Matt Towery, an InsiderAdvantage pollster, said in a report: “I am keenly aware that our polling of Donald Trump is viewed by some as an outlier. But I am equally aware that our track record of polling him in his three presidential races has consistently been among the most accurate of public pollsters.
“We continue to be among the few public pollsters who can penetrate general reluctance by respondents to comfortably express their actual opinions of Trump.”
He added: “Of interest in this poll is the fact that the undecideds dropped to 1 percent. Our surveys generally have larger numbers of undecideds, in part due to our survey style and in part due to our sampling methods. This survey tells me that for the moment, opinion has settled out almost completely.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Newsweek: “Nearly 80 million Americans gave President Trump a resounding Election Day mandate to end Joe Biden’s economic disaster and immigration crisis. The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on February 2: “The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!”
Republican pollster Daron Shaw said last month: “The president faces two difficult obstacles—the virtually unanimous and intractable opposition of Democrats and the stubbornness of high prices.”
What Happens Next
While Towery noted that Trump’s polling figures had shown an uptick, he went on to acknowledge that the upcoming midterm elections would be challenging for the president.
“I will note that while President Trump’s numbers have improved, the outlook for the midterms for the Republicans look quite dicey. We will address that issue in upcoming surveys,” he said.
Campaigns on both sides of the political divide are likely to adjust messaging around immigration, inflation and economic performance as issue ratings and battleground trends evolve heading into November’s midterms.
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