Democrats Are Holding the Lead In Early Voting Turnout Ahead of the Midterms. It is Larger than 2024.
Democrats appear to have a significant advantage in early voting turnout in yet another ominous sign for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
A CNN analysis of 25 states found Democratic early-voting turnout ahead of Republicans by 14 points. By comparison, at this point in 2024, Democrats had a six-point lead in early voting turnout.
The disparity grows to 18 points for people who are considered “low propensity” voters, people who voted in only one of the two previous elections or who didn’t vote at all.
The data might suggest an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, something a recent Gallup survey found.
According to Gallup, 58 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they were enthusiastic about the upcoming election. By comparison, only 48 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were enthusiastic.
Gallup stated that the only time Democrats were more motivated to vote than this cycle was in 2018.
“The 2026 midterm election campaign ranks among the highest in voter attention and enthusiasm and will likely see high levels of early voting,” Gallup stated. “Confidence in the election process is similar to what it has been in recent elections, but lower than it was in most election years prior to 2020.”
In terms of early voting, Gallup found that more than 40 percent of the electorate planned to vote before Election Day.
“Fifty-four percent of Democratic registered voters plan to vote early, compared with 38% of Republicans and 37% of independents. A similar pattern by party was seen in 2022, but before that, Republicans were about as likely to vote early as Democrats were,” Gallup stated.
The analysis found that in Kansas, Democrats are doing particularly well in early voting with so-called “low propensity” voters.
The network found Democrats with a 26-point lead in early voting turnout among people who had not voted in 2022 or 2024. Among those who only voted in one previous election, the lead was 14-points, and overall, the lead was 2 points.
The Kansas Senate race has been one of the biggest surprises of the election cycle. Polls have shown Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton and Republican incumbent Roger Marshall locked in a tight contest. One recent CNN/SSRS poll even had Hamilton with a four-point lead.
CNN also highlighted how Democrats were doing with “low propensity” voters in North Carolina. The network reported that Democrats had a 25-point advantage in early voting with such voters. However, Democrats also led among by high propensity voters by 14 points.
Gallup noted that Republican voters were more likely to vote in person, rather than use the mail. The polling service found Republicans with an 8-point lead among those who planned to vote in person with 75 percent saying they planned to vote that way compared to just 67 percent of Democrats.
