Bitcoin April Rally Fueled By Futures Trading As Spot Demand Weakens, Data Shows
Bitcoin rose 12.7% in April, marking its strongest monthly gain since April 2025 and extending a two-month recovery trend after a rout that saw it lost about half of its value over the past months.
The move came during a period of uneven crypto demand shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, including spillover risks linked to the ongoing Iran war and shifting global risk sentiment. Broader financial market positioning also reflected uncertainty around U.S. interest-rate expectations, which has influenced liquidity across risk assets.
Market analysis from CryptoQuant shows that the April rally was driven primarily by perpetual futures trading, a form of leveraged derivatives activity, while spot market demand remained negative throughout the month. The firm’s “apparent demand” metric, which tracks 30-day changes in on-chain accumulation, did not turn positive even as prices moved higher, according to CryptoQuant data and research commentary.
“This divergence – rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand – suggests price appreciation is driven by leverage rather than fresh coin accumulation,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said in analysis cited by CNBC reporting and reinforced in multiple market updates.
Similar findings were reported in Decrypt, which noted that the April rally was largely supported by leveraged futures activity while spot demand remained weak, a structure that has historically been associated with fragile price moves.
The dominance of derivatives trading has become a defining feature of the current market structure. Perpetual futures contracts, widely used for leveraged positioning, now account for a large share of liquidity and price discovery across exchanges, while spot markets, once central to early crypto trading, have become less consistent as a driver of sustained momentum, according to TradingView News.
The structure of the April move has also been compared with earlier market phases. In analysis referenced by CryptoQuant, similar divergences between rising futures demand and weakening spot demand were seen at the beginning of the 2022 downturn, when Bitcoin entered a prolonged correction period following heavy leverage unwinds.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which aggregates on-chain and market indicators, fell from 50 to 40 during April, moving back into bearish territory despite the price increase.
ETF flows and institutional activity added partial support during the month. Net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds totaled about $1.9 billion, while corporate holdings increased by roughly 58,000 BTC, according to CNBC. However, these inflows did not fully offset the weakness in spot market accumulation highlighted in on-chain metrics.
The broader context of crypto trading activity has also been shaped by shifting investor sentiment across 2026. Earlier coverage from IBT noted Bitcoin trading patterns influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, including price weakness when Bitcoin slipped below $76,000 during periods of reduced risk appetite. That report tied short-term declines to traders pulling back ahead of macroeconomic events.
Separate IBT analysis also highlighted competing asset allocation strategies in traditional markets, including a portfolio recommendation from Berenberg that assigned exposure to gold, silver, and Bitcoin while excluding bonds, reflecting continued institutional debate over Bitcoin’s role in diversified portfolios.
