Analysts Say U.S. Strikes in the Caribbean Are Driving Drug Routes to New, Harder-to-Track Corridors

U.S. military strikes targeting suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean are pushing narcotics flows into new routes and methods that are harder to detect even as operations intensify and casualties rise, as a new sprawling report by BBC Mundo explains.

The latest strike occurred Monday, when U.S. Southern Command said two people were killed after a vessel traveling along a “known narco-trafficking” route was hit in the Caribbean Sea.

The command stated that “intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes” and was engaged in trafficking operations. The strike is part of a broader campaign launched in September 2025 that has now resulted in at least 188 deaths across more than 50 operations, according to official figures.

Back in February, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed some cartels had “ceased all narcotics operations INDEFINITELY,” , adding that President Donald Trump is “SAVING” American lives” with the operation.

Experts cited by BBC Mundo, however, say the strategy is not reducing overall trafficking. Instead, it is shifting it. “We’re not seeing a real decrease, but probably less visibility due to changes in tactics,” said Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America, pointing to U.S. border data showing that cocaine detections have slightly increased since the strikes began.

Analysts say the operational impact has been uneven and geographically limited. Alex Papadovassilakis of InSight Crime said there is “no evidence of a sustained decrease” in cocaine flows through the region. Instead, traffickers appear to be adapting by shifting routes and diversifying methods.

Evidence points to increased use of air corridors, particularly unregistered flights moving east through Guyana toward Suriname and Brazil, as well as expanded trafficking through the Amazon basin, where dense jungle and river networks complicate enforcement.

Maritime methods are also evolving, including greater reliance on semisubmersible vessels, smaller boats making multiple stops, and container-based smuggling that embeds drugs within legal cargo.

“If you only target one method on one route, you close a door,” Papadovassilakis said. “But many others remain open.”

The data also suggest that the Caribbean has never been the primary corridor. Even before the campaign, only about 20% of cocaine bound for the United States passed through the region, with the majority moving through Pacific routes or commercial shipping channels.

Geoff Ramsey of the Atlantic Council said the strikes “apply friction, but are not the solution,” noting that structural factors such as corruption and weak oversight continue to enable trafficking networks to adapt.

Originally published on Latin Times