Trump’s approval rating on economy sparks midterms warning
President Donald Trump is now being rated as “slightly worse” than Joe Biden was at the same stage of his presidency in a warning for Republicans heading into the midterm elections, according to a new CNN analysis.
Newsweek has contacted the White House via email for comment.
Why It Matters
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten, speaking on the network and citing his aggregate of national polling data, said the numbers show a dramatic erosion in public confidence in Trump’s handling of the economy, despite the issue being a central pillar of his political brand.
It represents an alarming signal for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms, according to Enten.
What To Know
Trump’s net approval on the economy fell to minus 20, slightly worse than Biden’s at the same point in his term, according to Enten’s analysis aired Tuesday on CNN News Central.
“The economy and inflation ate Joe Biden’s presidency alive,” the polling expert said. “And now, it is eating Donald Trump’s presidency alive.”
Enten, host of The Enten Scale, streaming exclusively on the CNN app, walked viewers through the shift.
At this point in Biden’s term, his net economic approval rating sat at -19 points.
Trump, by contrast, began his new term in positive territory at +6. But that advantage has evaporated.
“Down he goes,” Enten said, describing a rapid slide to -20, leaving Trump “in a slightly worse position on the economy than Joe Biden was at this point in his presidency.”
The polling trend is politically ominous with regard to the pivotal upcoming midterm elections this fall, according to the data expert.
Enten noted that when a president’s economic approval is in positive territory, the average midterm loss for his party is around nine House seats.
But when that approval is negative—as it is for Trump now—the losses widen dramatically to an average of 28 seats, large enough to end a House majority and likely jeopardize the Senate as well.
“[It] would wave adios, amigos, goodbye, see you later, that House majority,” Enten said. “When a president is seen [negatively] on the economy, his party suffers big league.”
Part of Trump’s problem, Enten argued, is that voters believe he is prioritizing the wrong issues.
Despite the administration’s high-profile immigration crackdown, Enten said three in four Americans told pollsters they think Trump is focusing too little on lowering prices. More than half—53 percent—say he is putting too much emphasis on deportations.
“That’s why Donald Trump is going into Iowa right now,” Enten said. “Americans want to focus on the economy and lowering prices. They don’t want it on deportations. And right now they think it’s flip‑a‑roo.”
The misalignment, he suggested, is driving the president’s return to the Midwest as he attempts to “flip the script” in a state that has grown more reliably Republican.
But even there, the warning signs are evident. In Iowa—where Trump has won by double digits three straight times—prediction markets now place the GOP’s chances of winning the open Senate seat at 66 percent, down from 81 percent a year ago.
For a state that hasn’t elected a non‑incumbent Democrat to the Senate since 1984, that shift, Enten said, “foreshadows big problems” for Republicans nationwide.
What People Are Saying
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten said: “If the president’s net approval rating on the economy is positive, which Donald Trump isn’t, you keep your House seats lost to a minimal, right?
“You lose about nine seats on average. If it is negative, the president is not liked on the economy, if his net approval rating on the economy is negative, as it is right now for Donald Trump, look at the average House seat loss, it’s a 28-seat loss on average, which would wave adios, amigos, goodbye, see you later, that House majority.
“And it probably would put the Senate majority in danger as well. When a president is seen negative on the economy, his party suffers big league, to put it into President Trump’s language, big league when it comes to the midterm elections.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly previously told Newsweek: “President Trump took office with a resounding mandate from the nearly 80 million Americans who voted for him to secure our border, end Joe Biden’s inflation crisis, remove criminal illegal aliens from our streets, and restore American greatness both at home and abroad.
“He has firmly cemented his legacy as the peace president—having ended eight wars and counting and saving millions of lives. He is delivering on his promises, and the American people remain firmly aligned with the president’s agenda to Make America Great Again, regardless of the mainstream media’s so-called polling.”
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social last week: “Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense… Something has to be done about Fraudulent Polling… Isn’t it sad what has happened to American Journalism, but I am going to do everything possible to keep this Polling SCAM from moving forward!”
What Happens Next
Trump is set to continue highlighting affordability and energy policy on the road as his team seeks to address voter concerns on prices and shift attention from immigration.
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