Todd Dean: Why the Economy Feels Tight Even When Markets Look Strong, The Real Story Behind the Velocity of Money

The Age of Acceleration and Economic Uncertainty

We are living in an age where everything is changing faster than most people can process. In 1982, futurist R. Buckminster Fuller introduced the Knowledge Doubling Curve to illustrate the accelerating rate of human knowledge. For centuries, knowledge doubled roughly every hundred years. By 1945 it was every twenty-five years. By 1982 it had accelerated to every twelve or thirteen months. Fuller even predicted that one day knowledge could double in a matter of hours. Whether or not society has reached that point, it is clear the pace of change has surpassed anything previous generations imagined.

“Follow the Money”: A Framework That Still Holds True

In a world moving this fast, one piece of guidance that has shaped Todd Dean’s career came from his mentor, Rich Keal of Freebridge Capital. Keal told him, “If you want to understand anything, follow the money.” That perspective has become central to Dean’s approach to business and economics. By watching how money moves, he believes one can understand the truth long before the headlines catch up. Money movement reveals who is spending, who is holding back and how the financial behaviors of individuals and institutions shape the everyday economy.

Understanding M1, M2, M3 and Why Velocity Matters

To understand the economic climate of 2025, Dean points to something most consumers rarely discuss: M1, M2, M3 and the velocity of money. These terms describe different measures of the money supply, but velocity is the one that affects households most directly. Velocity refers to how often money changes hands. When money circulates quickly, the economy feels active. When money sits idle, even a large money supply can feel like a shortage. A slowdown in velocity leads to weaker spending, slower growth and a sense of financial pressure for families, even when corporate earnings or stock market indicators remain strong.

Money does not disappear during downturns. In Dean’s view, it moves. It changes direction. It circulates differently depending on confidence, opportunity and perceived risk.

What 2009 Revealed About Money Movement in a Downturn

Dean saw this clearly during the 2009 recession. At the time, he was running an angel investor group. On the surface, capital deployment had halted. Individuals in the group, who were high net worth individuals, were no longer investing in startups. Confidence had collapsed and liquidity was being protected. To the public, it appeared that investors had stepped back entirely.

Behind the scenes, however, a different pattern emerged. These same investors were still moving money amongst themselves. They were investing privately with one another. Capital did not vanish; it simply shifted out of public view. That experience shaped Dean’s understanding of economic contractions. When money stops flowing to consumers, it does not mean money is gone. It means it is not reaching the people who power the real economy. It is circulating at the top, not the bottom.

The 2025 Economy: Big Shifts at the Top, Pressure at the Bottom

Dean sees the same dynamic repeating itself in 2025. Conversations about crypto, quantum and financial technology dominate the economic narrative. Massive companies such as Oracle, Intel, xAI, OpenAI, Microsoft and Nvidia are exchanging enormous sums of capital as they race toward technological dominance. The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates because the real estate markets were flat and to span consumers’ spending. The government printed its last penny eliminating the value of the penny, so the minimum threshold is now at 5 cents. There is movement, but it is concentrated at the upper levels of the economy, while the government is trying to figure out how to create more spending with the average consumer.

Why Consumers Feel Squeezed Even When Markets Look Stable

Meanwhile, consumers feel squeezed. Spending has slowed. Inflation feels heavier than official metrics suggest. Families feel financial pressure even as markets appear stable. When Dean follows the money, he sees that consumer-level velocity has slowed. People are holding onto cash. Wages are stretched causing families to feel more stress today, all the while trying to protect their savings. As velocity drops, momentum drains from the everyday economy long before the data reflects it.

A Ground-Level Look from Seattle: Clayne Wheeler’s Perspective

When Dean wants a ground-level view of what is happening, he seeks out people whose livelihoods feel the economy directly. One of those individuals is Clayne Wheeler, a long-time cobbler and shoeshine professional in downtown Seattle. Wheeler has spent decades interacting with executives, workers, tourists and locals, and can gauge economic sentiment by the customers who walk through his door.

When asked recently about what he is seeing in 2025, Wheeler offered a candid perspective.

“The economy is scary right now in the United States and around the world. As a small business in a recession, my business does well. Not because the economy is strong, but because other companies are pulling back. Nordstrom closed most of their shoeshine operations. More than ten shops in the Pacific Northwest have shut down. Not because there is no demand, but because the next generation does not want to take over. I have shoes shipped to me from across the country and I am booked for weeks. I employ eight people, all under forty, and I train them myself. We do events, concerts and corporate work. AI has not affected my business. The only impact is that people who lost jobs to AI are getting their shoes shined for interviews. The economy is not strong, but some people are managing to ride the wave.”

The Gap Between Economic Data and Daily Life

Wheeler’s world may be small and hands-on, but his experience reflects a larger national pattern. The economy is uneven and inconsistent. Some sectors are moving while others stall. Some individuals are stable, others are struggling. The common factor is the circulation of money. Capital is moving rapidly among technology companies, global investors and corporate giants, while it slows among the households that support everyday financial life. At TD Global Partners, business remains strong because the firm focuses on transactions of fifty million and above, positioning them squarely where the capital continues to flow.

The Core Truth: Money Always Tells the Real Story

Until the velocity of money returns to the consumer level, the gap between the economy presented in data and the economy people feel at home will continue to widen.

For Dean, the takeaway remains the same lesson he learned early in his career. If you want to understand the world you are living in, follow the money. The story it tells is always honest.