Report Casts Doubt On Chances Of a Popular Uprising In Cuba Despite U.S. Pressure Because Many Leaders Have Been Imprisoned Or Exiled

A new report has cast doubt on the chances of a popular uprising in Cuba despite the regime’s weakened state, noting that most of its leaders have either been imprisoned or exiled.

The New York Times cited Michael J. Bustamante, a professor of history and chair in Cuban and Cuban American Studies at the University of Miami, who claimed that at the moment “there is no viable opposition, no leader with a strong enough network or a plan for taking over.”

However, another analyst, Alina Lopez, told the outlet noted that “civil society is indeed emerging.” The NYT noted that Cubans have been banging pots and pans in nightly demonstration and anti-government graffiti has appeared on walls. Moreover, a Communist Party headquarters were vandalized for the first time since the revolution in the city of Moron earlier this year.

Cubalex, a local human rights group with headquarters in the U.S., noted that there were 229 protests in March, compared to 30 in January. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel acknowledged the population’s frustration, but blamed it on the U.S. blockade.

Moreover, the Cuban regime acknowledged there are ongoing conversations with the Trump administration, and officials have said the country is welcome to have a role in its economy as long as it does not challenge its standing.

Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of Raul Castro and great-nephew of Fidel, is taking point in the conversations, appearing alongside senior Cuban officials in recent meetings.

The emergence of Rodríguez Castro comes as the United States signals interest in broader negotiations over Cuba’s political and economic future. According to reporting in early March, U.S. officials have explored potential reforms with figures connected to the Cuban leadership, including Rodríguez Castro, and have raised concerns about President Miguel Díaz-Canel, whom one source described as “an obstacle” to change.

Discussions have reportedly included the possibility of easing sanctions in exchange for reforms, though any leadership shift would represent a significant break with Cuba’s longstanding emphasis on institutional continuity.

Cuba also announced plans to pardon 2,010 prisoners during Holy Week, describing the move as a “humanitarian and sovereign gesture.” The release will apply to specific groups, including young people, people over 60, women, and foreigners, with eligibility based on factors such as good conduct, health conditions, and time served. It is worth noting that the development took place on the same week as the Trump administration did not enforce a fuel blockade of the island, allowing the arrival of a Russian tanker loaded with hundreds of thousands of oil barrels, key to mitigate the country’s energy shortages.