Renminbi extends advance to mark longest winning streak since 2010

Published Thu, Feb 26, 2026 · 05:37 PM

[BEIJING] The renminbi extended gains on Thursday (Feb 26), marking its longest winning streak against the greenback since 2010, after China’s daily fixing signalled tolerance for a managed appreciation.

The onshore renminbi advanced for a 10th straight session to hit 6.8310 per US dollar, its strongest level since April 2023. Earlier, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily reference rate at 6.9228, strengthening it for a second straight session.

Exporters were seen stepping up foreign-currency settlements, helping the renminbi’s strength even as some state banks sporadically purchased large amounts of US dollars onshore, according to traders asking not to be identified as the matters were private. Some banks’ proprietary trading desks were also adding short US dollar positions, they added.

Thursday’s fix has fuelled expectations that Chinese officials may be warming to a modest renminbi advance this year, which could support capital inflows, ease trade frictions and further Beijing’s long-term ambition of internationalisation. It comes amid recent strength thanks to robust foreign exchange conversion, an improving US-China relationship and broad weakness in the greenback.

“The key message is that the authorities are not attempting to halt the appreciation, but rather ensure that the appreciation pace is at a trot and not at full gallop,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. The bank revised the year-end forecast for onshore renminbi to 6.75 from the previous 6.85 on Thursday.

The onshore renminbi has gained around 1 per cent over the past five sessions, the fastest pace since January 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In offshore trading, hedge funds have been buying USD/CNH put options this week, adding to wagers that the pair will continue to fall, traders said.

Additional tailwinds may lie ahead. US President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to China next month to meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss tariffs, a development that could lend further support to the currency.

For now, the market reaction indicates renminbi bulls remain at ease, untroubled by the wide gap between official fixing and market estimates. The divergence, some analysts say, points to the PBOC’s preference for a slower appreciation. Thursday’s fixing was 610 pips weaker than the average forecast at 6.8618 by traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey, a record gap on the weakening bias side.

Bloomberg’s survey typically reflects market estimates of where the PBOC’s fixing should be given overnight moves, based on its methodology, but excluding the so-called counter-cyclical factor. As a result, any divergence from the actual fixing can be interpreted as the extent of the PBOC’s daily support for, or restraint on, the managed currency. BLOOMBERG