Kamala Harris’ presidential chances as campaign teases announcement today
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is unlikely to win the 2028 presidential election if she runs in it, according to betting odds.
Posting on X Wednesday evening, Harris’ campaign account, Kamala HQ, posted a graphic showing a login to the Kamala HQ account. “Tomorrow,” the graphic said, without providing any further information.
While it is unclear whether the post is linked to a potential presidential campaign, it was the first time the account had posted since her November 2024 defeat to President Donald Trump.
Newsweek reached out to Harris by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
The Democratic Party has been split after Harris lost the 2024 presidential election to President Donald Trump. Some strategists, analysts and pundits have suggested the party alienated moderates while others claimed the party was not progressive enough.
Since then, there has been a lot of speculation about who might run in 2028. Aside from Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom has been named as a potential candidate, as has Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and other leading Democrats.
Whoever becomes the party’s next leader will hold a lot of responsibility for uniting the party and leading it into the next election. Betting odds and polls may prove instructive for candidates in aiding their decision as to whether to run.
What To Know
It is not clear what Harris will announce Thursday but it comes amid speculation that she might run for president again.
Harris previously said she might run again in 2028, telling the BBC she was “not done” in a BBC interview in October. “I am not done. I have lived my entire career as a life of service and it’s in my bones,” she said.
However, she said she had not made a final decision. It was previously rumored she might run for California Governor but she ruled this out in July.
According to betting platform Polymarket, Harris has a 5 percent chance of winning the 2028 presidential election. By its estimations, Vice President JD Vance is in the lead with a 25 percent chance, followed by Newsom, who has a 19 percent chance of securing the keys to the White House.
Meanwhile, betting platform Kalshi has Harris with a 3 percent chance of winning the election. The platform said Vance was the most likely potential candidate to win the election, with a 25 percent chance of success. Newsom has a 20 percent chance.
For Harris to win the presidential election she would first have to emerge as the victor in the Democratic primary.
A recent Harvard Harris poll showed that Harris leads among potential Democratic candidates with 39 percent, ahead of Newsom with 30 percent, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York with 12 percent, Josh Shapiro’s 9 percent, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s 7 percent. The survey shows that 4 percent say someone else.
And polling aggregator RacetotheWH said Harris had 24.3 percent of the vote while Newsom has 24 percent.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said: “Harris carries significant baggage from 2024, but may be looking at two potential opportunities to get a jump on her opponents. First, President Trump’s poll numbers are sinking fast and she has many targets from Epstein to affordability she could get a bounce from.
“Second, she will have clear field advantage among Democrats while others may be more focused on the midterms. But it would be highly unusual to declare a candidacy so early. This could simply be the beginning of a long tease.”
The Trump War Room account responded to Kamala HQ, writing on X: “LET’S GOOO.”
What Happens Next
Candidates usually announce presidential runs after the midterm elections which, in this election cycle, are scheduled to take place in November.
