From Shell to Singapore Airlines: the potential winners and losers as oil tops US$100

[SINGAPORE] Oil smashed through US$100 a barrel on Monday (Mar 9), with global benchmark Brent crude surging as much as 20 per cent to top US$111 in early trading as the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict upends energy markets.

For transport and logistics players on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and regional bourses, where fuel represents a large, often volatile slice of the operating pie, analysts warn that the current spike may lead to significant margin pressure across air, sea and land transport. 

Land, air, sea: absorbing the shock

On the ground, petrol station operators Shell, Caltex and Esso raised the prices of their fuel in Singapore twice in three days, with the popular 95-octane grade rising by S$0.05 to S$2.97 as at Friday.

Diesel prices have also climbed, with the highest being S$2.78 per litre at Esso, Shell and Caltex on Friday.

Singapore’s largest taxi operator ComfortDelGro (CDG) has moved to partially absorb the spike.

CDG, whose fuel and electricity costs accounted for roughly 7.5 per cent of total operating expenses in FY2025, raised its in-house pump prices to S$1.93 per litre on Mar 5. The phased increase is aimed at managing the adjustment and absorbing some cost for drivers.

CDG subsidiary SBS Transit had previously reported in its FY2025 results that lower fuel and electricity costs in 2025 contributed to offsetting operating loss – a tailwind that now faces the drastically altered energy landscape.

For most air carriers, fuel is the second-largest expense after labour, typically accounting for a fifth to a quarter of operating expenses.

Singapore Airlines’ (SIA) net fuel costs (S$1.4 billion) accounted for nearly 30 per cent of its total expenditure for its third quarter ended Dec 31, 2025.

Singapore jet kerosene prices surged to US$225 per barrel as at Mar 5, up 140 per cent from a week prior.

“For carriers, higher oil and insurance prices will likely result in greater margin pressure. Middle East is a key transit hub particularly for Asia-Europe routes, and prolonged closure of the airspace will likely result in longer flight times as planes are re-routed,” analysts from OCBC Group Research said in a Friday note.

“It is also important to note that the relationship between flight distance and fuel requirements is non-linear: as the distance increases, an aircraft must carry additional fuel, and this incremental weight further increases overall fuel burn,” they added.

SIA shares have tumbled 7 per cent month-to-date, despite reporting record Q3 revenue and encouraging signs of passenger yield stabilisation.

The carrier typically hedges almost 50 per cent of its fuel over the next three months, which may help protect the airline from spikes in fuel prices through the use of derivative contracts.

“Hedged carriers in the Asia-Pacific like SIA, Qantas and Cathay Pacific are better positioned to weather the impact,” OCBC analysts said.

For jet fuel supplier China Aviation Oil, the oil price volatility “may bode well for its trading activities, offset by potentially lower jet fuel volumes on weaker travel demand”, OCBC analysts said in a Monday note.

“Elevated jet fuel prices have historically weighed on air travel demand and business volumes, but this is typically not significant to the financial performance of the company,” they note.

Maritime players and shipping lines are facing similar dislocations.

“Pure-play oil tankers are the most exposed to volatility in the current conflict, while diversified players with alternative revenue streams such as port terminals (outside of the affected region) and logistics services are better positioned to absorb sector shocks,” analysts from Morningstar DBRS said in a Mar 2 note.

On SGX, shares of Samudera Shipping fell 2.8 per cent to close at S$1.04 on Monday while Cosco slid 2.6 per cent to S$0.112.

Upstream players have also seen heavy trading, with Rex International climbing 6.6 per cent and RH Petrogas rising 28.6 per cent as investors piled into the oil trade.

Singapore-listed palm oil planters with primarily upstream operations such as First Resources and Bumitama Agri could benefit too.

Regional market jolts

While Singapore may be able to tide through macroeconomic instability caused by the conflict and is likely to benefit from safe haven flows, the Republic may also be vulnerable to higher energy prices due to its “consumer pricing framework that is more responsive to changes”, said Julius Baer equity research analyst Chua Jen-Ai.

Emerging markets will be the most exposed to spillover effects from the conflict, said analysts at research firm BMI on Friday.

Net energy importers in Asean, in particular, would face terms-of-trade shocks from high energy prices, and destabilised external positions.

Energy importers like the Philippines that run current account deficits will be most vulnerable to persistent oil and gas price increases, exerting downward pressure on the Philippine peso and straining the country’s balance of payments, the BMI analysts said. 

“Elevated oil and gas prices should support net energy exporter currencies and fiscal positions, and could help cushion domestic consumers from the inflationary impact of higher global energy prices. The reverse is true for net importers,” they added.

The analysts also noted that Thailand, which is also a net energy importer, would face a “large energy import bill”, dampening its positive current account.

However, higher gas prices could lift coal prices, benefiting coal exporter Indonesia, and Malaysia’s oil-related revenues would be boosted by higher crude prices.

As for developed markets such as Japan and South Korea, with between 70 and 80 plus per cent of their oil trade relying on transit through the strait, they face near-term risks of disrupted oil deliveries and localised shortages, analysts said.

The absorption of these spillovers will depend on their energy balance deficits relative to current account surplus, fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility.