Broncos now favored over Bills in AFC Divisional Round in sudden market shift
Josh Allen and the Bills could be looking at back-to-back playoff games as underdogs.
No. 6 Buffalo opened as 1.5-point road favorites over the No. 1 Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday after edging out the Jaguars 27-24 in Jacksonville.
Just like the days leading up to that game, the line has drifted away from the Bills and toward the home team. The Broncos are now favored by 1.5 points at FanDuel after a three-point shift on Wednesday.
This market adjustment came after Sean Payton dismissed reporters about the notion of being tabbed as home underdogs.
“I can’t control that,” Payton said to reporters on Wednesday. “I don’t. We don’t pay attention to that honestly.”
The underlying narrative around this game is Allen’s big-game pedigree facing Denver’s smothering defense.
Allen endured several big hits in the Bills’ Wild Card win. He was listed with foot, knee and finger injuries on the Bills’ practice report this week, practicing in a limited capacity on Tuesday before logging a full session on Wednesday.
The reigning NFL MVP has led the Bills into their seventh straight playoffs with two AFC Championship appearances in that span. Saturday marks Allen’s 15th playoff start as he looks to build on 259.4 yards per game and a 66.7 percent completion rate.
Payton steered the Broncos back to the playoffs for their second straight season in his third season at the helm. Denver led the NFL in yards per play allowed (4.5), sacks (68) and red-zone defense (42.6 percent).
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Bo Nix will be pressed for explosive plays since the deficiencies on each side cancel each other out: The Bills field a porous run defense, relenting 136 scrimmage yards per game, all while the Broncos don’t run exceptionally well, gaining a pedestrian 4.4 yards per attempt.
It was the first season that the Bills didn’t win the AFC East since 2019, when the Patriots had clinched it for their 11th straight year.
The Broncos clinched the AFC West for the first time since 2015, snapping the Chiefs’ nine-year run.
Last season, the No. 2 Bills squashed the No. 7 Broncos 31-7 in the Wild Card Round. Allen spread the ball around for 272 yards and a pair of scores while Buffalo’s defense shut the door in the final three quarters.
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
