Sunday’s NFL conference championship game doubleheader begins in Denver, where the Broncos will take on the Patriots in a battle of the 1- and 2-seeds in the AFC.
The biggest storyline is how Denver will fare without starting QB Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in his team’s Divisional Round win over the BIlls last Saturday.
But there’s also a fascinating chess match on the other side of the ball, as regular season MVP contender Drake Maye faces another elite defense with a Super Bowl berth on the line, not to mention an intriguing coaching battle between two of the top coaches in the league in Denver’s Sean Payton and New England’s Mike Vrabel.
Below, let’s take a look at the Patriots vs. Broncos odds at Kalshi, analyze the keys to this contest and offer a prediction.
How To Watch Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship Game
Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
TV: CBS/Paramount+
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Patriots (2) vs. Broncos (1) Injury News, Analysis, Prediction
Given how many problems the New England defense caused for Chargers QB Justin Herbert in the Wild Card round and Texans QB CJ Stroud in last Sunday’s Divisional matchup, the Pats’ status as road favorites over Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos makes sense at first glance.
Can Jarrett Stidham Keep Banged Up Broncos Offense On Track?
Moving the chains will be that much more difficult for Stidham in his first career start if Denver is unable to run the football. With J.K. Dobbins — who averaged 5.0 yards per carry across 153 carries — healthy for the first 10 games of the season, the Broncos were consistently able to run the football, cracking 100 yards on the ground in eight of their first 10 games.
They’ve struggled without Dobbins in the lineup, though, and he remains sidelined today. After topping 100 yards on the ground in just four of their last eight games, including a 70-yard day — with Nix leading Denver in both carries (12) and yards (29) — against the Bills last weekend, Denver desperately needs rookie RJ Harvey and/or Jaleel McLaughlin to step up.
Another reason to question Denver’s offense is the fact that wide receivers Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant are both dealing with injuries. Franklin (hamstring) and Bryant (concussion) are expected to be active, but if either are limited by their recent injuries, Stidham’s task becomes that much more difficult.
There is one positive on the Broncos’ injury report: the return of starting center Luke Wattenberg, who has missed the last three games with a shoulder injury.
How Will Drake Maye, Pats Handle Latest Tough Test?
Given all the love that the Texans defense was deservedly getting going into last week’s game, it’s hard to say that the Patriots will be facing a stiffer challenge today (though playing on the road at altitude for a spot in the Super Bowl will absolutely be a pressure cooker).
Speaking of pressure, this game might come down to whether the Pats’ well-documented pass-blocking struggles continue or not. Maye was sacked five times apiece by the Chargers and Texans the last two weeks, and he faces another excellent pass rush today, led by Pro Bowl pass rusher Nik Bonitto, who was one of four Broncos with at least seven sacks during the regular season.
Just like it will be for Denver, the running game will be a huge factor for the Patriots today. New England has been solid on this front the last two weeks, churning out 251 total yards on 61 carries against the Chargers and Texans. Establishing the run today will be pivotal, and doing so successfully could go a long way in cutting down on the turnovers and sacks. In addition to taking 10 sacks the last two weeks, Maye and Co. turned it over a total of five times.
Prediction: Patriots to advance
I’m torn on who will win this game, as I expect both offenses to struggle. If it comes down to which quarterback blinks first (and/or makes more mistakes), I’m going to give MVP contender Maye the slight edge over Stidham, but the only thing I’m truly confident in is both defenses having the upper hand in this matchup.
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