The Other World Cup: Billions in Trades, Millions Won And Lost

There are two World Cups happening this summer.

One is being played on the field, the other is being played on prediction market platforms to the tune of nearly $50 billion in June at a rate of roughly $2 million per minute according to CNBC. Notional trading volume processed by Kalshi jumped by 70% in June 2026 up from May to $31 billion while Polymarket’s trading volume broke a monthly record in June, hitting $10.8 billion. Rothera captured 7% of the total prediction market in its debut month, raking in $2 billion.

While traditional sportsbooks are still the bigger business overall by a factor of 10, the biggest single wins and losses of this World Cup are happening not at sportsbooks like FanDuel or DraftKings but on prediction markets.

Unlike traditional sports betting, prediction markets function more like a stock exchange. Because prediction markets match buyers and sellers continuously and directly instead of taking bets against the house, they can accommodate positions that traditional sportsbooks would never accept. The largest single World Cup sportsbook win according to Fox News was a $631,000 wager on France in its match against Sweden that resulted in just $74,235 of profit. By comparison, the Los Angeles Times reported that the largest profit on World Cup prediction markets was $7.6 million derived from two wagers placed by Polymarket user “GRIMDRIP” on Czechia when it faced South Africa.

But if the wins on prediction markets are massive compared to those on traditional sports-betting platforms, so are the losses. Here are some of the biggest losers:

• Polymarket trader “coldsway” lost $4.9 million by predicting that Morocco would not win its July 4 match.
• “coldsway” also generated the largest visible multi-day deficit of the tournament, losing a gross $15.86 million across 11 failed positions over a 10-day span (although $4.23 million was recovered on four successful trades).
• “FlickRaw” wiped out their entire account balance of $4.2 million within a single 24-hour period in mid-June after joining Polymarket specifically for the tournament.

For context, only 25 individual Polymarket transactions or settled positions related to the 2026 World Cup cleared the $1 million threshold, with 9 of them being positive (winnings) and 16 being negative (losses). Blockchain data unearthed by Lookonchain showed that a large number of the winnings over $1 million from three different users went to a single Binance exchange account, suggesting that a financial institution reaped $24.25 million in World Cup trading profits.

Massive trades are just part of the broader picture of the World Cup’s financialization. Each team can be viewed as a financial asset complete with a risk profile, historical performance, and investment thesis. Three teams in particular exhibited classical market dynamics during the tournament.

The United States: In financial terms, the U.S. team became something like a meme stock as national pride and sentimental optimism inflated valuations. Before its round 16 elimination, American traders poured an estimated $186 million into contracts backing a U.S. championship run, pushing the team’s implied probability as high as 4.3% while traditional sportsbooks kept the U.S. closer to a 1% to 2% probability range. The gap highlighted one of prediction markets’ defining characteristics: unlike sportsbooks, which manage exposure by limiting certain wagers, prediction markets allow demand to directly move prices.

France: The French team functioned like a reliable blue-chip stock, commanding a tournament-high 35.4% implied probability on Polymarket’s massive $3.9 billion winner pool and a matching 35.5% probability on Kalshi’s $961.96 million market. France attracted steady demand from traders treating temporary price declines as buying opportunities. When France’s live win probability dipped below key levels during matches, buyers stepped in, betting that short-term volatility did not change the team’s underlying strength. The trading pattern resembled a classic investment strategy: accumulate a fundamentally strong asset when its price temporarily falls below a set threshold.

Cape Verde: The Cape Verde team exhibited a different type of prediction market dynamic: mispricing. Ahead of its match against heavy favorites Spain, Cape Verde contracts traded at just a 9% implied probability on Polymarket, effectively pricing in near-certain defeat. When Cape Verde held Spain to a shock 0-0 draw, Polymarket trader “fishalive” turned roughly $427,000 into a $4.7 million payout by taking two contrarian positions: that Spain would not win the match outright and that Cape Verde would lose by fewer than 2.5 goals. The trade illustrates how prediction markets turn probability estimates into tradable positions, allowing traders to profit when market prices diverge from their own view of the odds.

The World Cup is transforming sports betting into something closer to a financial market, where billions of dollars change hands in real time as fans and traders turn match outcomes into tradable positions. For every match played on the field, another unfolds in prediction markets, where victories and defeats are measured not in goals scored, but in millions of dollars won and lost.