U.S. Households Have Paid Nearly $450 More Since Iran War Began, Analysis Shows

Americans have paid nearly $450 more per household in fuel-related costs since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, a new analysis shows.

Concretely, a Moody’s Analytics report shared with CNBC showed that the average U.S. household has spent an additional $447.19 on energy-related expenses since the conflict began, according to Moody’s. Across the country, that amounts to nearly $60 billion in added costs for consumers as gasoline, diesel, and airline fares have climbed.

The analysis, reported by CNBC’s Steve Liesman, comes as the war reaches its three-month mark and energy prices remain one of the clearest ways the conflict is spilling into the everyday economy. The national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.391 a gallon Friday, according to AAA.

Diesel averaged $5.522 a gallon. “Unless the war ends soon, financially pressed consumers will have no option but to turn more cautious in their spending, threatening the already soft economy,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, told CNBC.

Zandi said that if prices remain at current levels, the average household could lose nearly $2,000 over one year because of higher energy costs. About half of the added household burden so far has come from gasoline, Moody’s found. Diesel has added more than $20 billion in extra consumer costs, while higher jet fuel prices have translated into nearly $10 billion more in airfare expenses.

Airline fares rose more than 20% in April compared with a year earlier, according to federal inflation data cited in the CNBC report. That has made travel more expensive just as the summer season begins, putting more pressure on families already paying more to commute and cool their homes.

The impact is also swallowing up the political relief the White House had hoped would help consumers. Moody’s estimated that the nearly $450 energy hit has more than erased the average $384 household boost from larger tax refunds tied to President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Zandi told CNBC that most of the benefit from those larger tax cuts has already been exhausted.

The strain is hitting lower-income households especially hard because they spend a larger share of their budgets on food, energy, and transportation. Goldman Sachs said higher energy prices are expected to erode consumer spending power through the rest of 2026.

Costco reported “record-breaking” gas volumes at the end of its fiscal quarter as drivers searched for cheaper fuel. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski warned this month that spending among lower-income consumers “may be getting a little bit worse” as energy costs eat into household budgets.

Government data released Thursday showed consumer spending rose 0.5% from March to April, but that headline number masks a more fragile reality. Personal income was essentially flat in April, while the personal saving rate fell to 2.6%, one of its lowest levels since the global financial crisis.

The New York Federal Reserve reported this month that credit card balances stood at $1.25 trillion in the first quarter, close to the record high reached at the end of 2025. Total household debt rose to $18.8 trillion.

“Consumers are increasingly facing an income squeeze, which is forcing them to use savings, credit and wealth to sustain their spending patterns,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNBC. “What we’re seeing is, essentially, the use of savings to offset weak income growth.”