China LNG imports hint at recovery as buyers replace lost supply

Published Tue, May 12, 2026 · 05:16 PM

[WASHINGTON] Liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to China are showing signs of recovery, as some buyers replace shipments disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East.

The 30-day moving average for LNG imports has increased to the highest level since February, based on ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Although that is still below the five-year average, the gap has shrunk to roughly half of what it was in early April.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked about a fifth of global LNG supply.

Qatar, which accounted for around 30 per cent of China’s LNG in 2025, has been forced to halt exports, pushing Chinese purchases of seaborne petrol to an eight-year low in April, said analytics firm Kpler.

Compared to other Asian nations, China’s petrol sector is better insulated from the disruptions. Sellers from Canada to Nigeria have helped replace the Qatari volumes.

Consumers can tap domestic production and overland pipeline supply, which reduces the need for LNG. And utilities have a suite of alternative fuels, from coal to renewables, to keep the lights on.

However, declining petrol inventories and the prospect of hotter weather have forced some companies to turn to the spot market for shipments to make up for lost supply, traders said.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast across southern China through the end of May, said the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.

The El Nino weather phenomenon is also expected to occur later this year, which would further raise temperatures in China and increase demand for air-conditioning, straining fuel supplies generally.

A jump in Chinese petrol prices is supporting procurement.

The cost of domestic trucked LNG – a key benchmark – in Guangdong has jumped nearly 70 per cent since March to the highest since 2023, based on data from Argus Media.

Guangdong is an industrial hub heavily reliant on petrol in southern China.

The price is now higher than overseas spot LNG, which makes it economical to buy shipments to sell into the domestic market.

Guangdong Energy Group bought cargoes in May, while Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group closed a tender for June and July shipments on Monday (May 11), said traders with knowledge of the matter.

Still, China’s appetite for LNG will remain under pressure as long as Hormuz is shut and spot prices of the fuel remain elevated, suggesting the recent uptick in imports could evaporate as soon as the summer season ends.

On the wire

US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet Thursday morning in Beijing, said the White House, for a high-stakes summit that will be dominated by discussions on trade and the war in Iran.

The US sanctioned a dozen entities and individuals over the sale of Iranian oil to China, stepping up economic pressure just days before Trump meets Xi.

Saudi Arabian crude oil exports to China for loading in June are set to plunge to around 13 million to 14 million barrels, said traders informed by the producer.

China’s central bank warned of imported inflation risks from higher oil and commodity prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Hopes that war-driven energy inflation will lift corporate earnings are misplaced, said Bloomberg Economics. BLOOMBERG