Experts Push Back Against Trump’s Claims that Iran’s Oil Infrastructure Could ‘Explode’ Soon

President Donald Trump‘s claim that Iran‘s oil pipelines could soon “explode” under pressure from a U.S. blockade is drawing skepticism from energy analysts, who say Tehran faces a serious storage and production problem, but not the kind of sudden catastrophic collapse described by the president.

“If they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode,” Trump told reporters at the White House last Thursday. He later said on Fox News that Iranian pipelines would “explode from within” if crude exports did not resume soon.

Energy experts who spoke to different media outlets say the reality is more complicated. Somee told The Washington Post that Iran likely has weeks, possibly months, before it runs out of places to store oil.

“That is not how it works,” Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, told the outlet. “Nothing is going to self-destruct.”

Mark Finley, an energy fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, also told the Post that “Iran has proven it knows how to keep its system operating.”

An anonymous senior administration official gave a contrasting view, saying that “Under current sanctions, Iran has limited ability to access” the “advanced technology and significant capital to reverse” the damage done by the blockade.

The warning comes as the Trump administration weighs how long it can keep pressure on Tehran without worsening the energy shock for U.S. consumers. Reuters reported that Trump met with Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other energy executives this week to discuss oil markets, production, shipping, and natural gas if the blockade continues for months.

The White House said those talks included steps to “continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimize impact on American consumers.” Brent crude climbed above $120 a barrel on Wednesday, reaching the highest level since 2022 before pairing some gains.

The Associated Press, on its end, reported that Iran may be forced to sharply reduce or stop production at some aging wells if storage fills up. That could cause long-term damage because old wells may not easily restart after being shut down. But that is different from pipelines exploding.

The analysis from the AP noted that Trump’s description was likely more dramatic than the technical risk facing Iran. They said Iran has already appeared to slow production, with Kpler, a firm monitoring commodities markets, estimating about two weeks of remaining storage capacity, and Wood Mackenzie, a firm monitoring commodities markets, estimating about three weeks.

The administration is also considering ways to increase U.S. oil output. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Thursday that officials are in “constant communication” with oil companies and studying regulatory changes that could help boost production “really soon.”