EU Moves To Diversify Jet Fuel Supply As Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Flows

The European Union is preparing new guidance urging member states to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern jet fuel supplies and expand alternative sourcing as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict threaten aviation fuel availability across the region.

The recommendations, expected within days, come as European airlines warn of mounting supply risks that could affect operations as early as late May. Europe currently imports between 30% and 40% of its jet fuel, with at least half sourced from the Middle East, leaving the region vulnerable to geopolitical instability, according to Reuters.

The European Commission confirmed it will present a broader response to the energy situation, including aviation fuel measures, as availability remains a primary concern. Officials are also weighing coordinated releases from fuel reserves if supply disruptions persist, Reuters reported.

The urgency of the situation has been underscored by fresh warnings from global energy authorities. The International Energy Agency has cautioned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages by June if it replaces only part of its usual Middle Eastern imports, as reported by Associated Press, which noted the region may have “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” under current conditions.

The risks are already rippling across the aviation sector. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, warned that flight cancellations in Europe could begin by the end of May if supply constraints worsen. Airlines have begun cutting schedules and grounding aircraft in anticipation of tighter fuel availability, according to Reuters.

Additional reporting from The Guardian highlighted that some European airports have warned of shortages within weeks if supply routes through the Middle East remain unstable, raising concerns about widespread disruption during the summer travel season.

The EU’s draft guidance will also clarify how airlines should handle operational disruptions caused by fuel shortages, including whether such conditions qualify as “exceptional circumstances” that could exempt carriers from paying compensation to passengers for cancellations.

Despite mounting pressure from airlines, the European Commission has decided not to suspend or alter key environmental policies, including the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates. Officials argue that climate commitments must remain intact even as the bloc navigates supply challenges, according to Reuters.

Beyond regulatory measures, the EU is moving to secure alternative fuel sources. Imports of jet fuel from the United States and Nigeria have already risen sharply in April, helping offset reduced flows from the Middle East, Reuters reported in a separate analysis of trade data.

However, shifting supply is not straightforward. U.S.-produced Jet A fuel differs from Europe’s preferred Jet A-1, with a higher freezing point that makes it less suitable for long-haul flights at high altitudes. This technical difference could complicate large-scale substitution, particularly for intercontinental routes.

Infrastructure constraints also pose challenges. Key European aviation hubs rely on the NATO-operated Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS) for jet fuel distribution, and adapting that network to accommodate different fuel types or new supply routes may take time.

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy shipments, has seen partial reopening following a ceasefire agreement tied to regional tensions. However, lingering military presence and unresolved negotiations mean supply flows could remain volatile.

Even if flows resume, EU officials expect supply constraints to persist. Limited domestic refining capacity and strong summer travel demand could keep the market tight, forcing airlines and policymakers to manage a prolonged period of uncertainty.

The crisis has also renewed focus on long-term solutions. The EU is accelerating efforts to scale up Sustainable Aviation Fuel, although current production remains limited. Industry data shows SAF accounts for a small fraction of total aviation fuel use, meaning it cannot yet fully offset supply shocks.