Supreme Court Just Cost Trump $175 Billion: What Happens to Your Money Now?

The Supreme Court just invalidated most of President Trump’s tariffs in a bombshell 6-3 decision Friday morning—and businesses that paid an estimated $175 billion in now-illegal import taxes are scrambling to figure out if they can get their money back.

Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the majority opinion declaring that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by using emergency powers to impose sweeping trade taxes that the Constitution explicitly reserves for Congress. The ruling wipes out the “Liberation Day” tariffs Trump unveiled in April 2025 and related duties he imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China over fentanyl concerns.

But here’s the trillion-dollar question nobody can answer yet: What happens to all that money American companies already paid?

The $175 Billion Refund Question

Between April 2025 and now, U.S. Customs and Border Protection collected approximately $175 billion from importers under the now-invalidated tariff programs, according to Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates.

That money came from American businesses—from massive retailers like Costco and Walmart to small companies importing plumbing supplies, educational toys, and bicycle parts. Those businesses either absorbed the costs (cutting into profits), passed them to consumers (raising prices), or some combination of both.

Now the Supreme Court says those tariffs were illegal all along. Which raises an obvious question: Does the government have to give the money back?

The short answer: Maybe, but it’s complicated.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, one of three dissenters, warned the majority opinion created “a mess” by providing no guidance on “whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers.”

That wasn’t an accident—the Court intentionally avoided addressing the refund question, leaving it for future litigation. And that litigation has already begun.

Who Gets Refunds (And Who Might Not)

During oral arguments last November, attorney Neal Katyal, representing small businesses challenging the tariffs, suggested that only plaintiffs in the lawsuit would automatically qualify for refunds. Everyone else? They’d need to file their own legal claims.

That interpretation, if correct, means the vast majority of importers who paid IEEPA tariffs would need to:

1. File administrative claims with U.S. Customs and Border Protection
2. Wait for denial (which is likely given government incentives to hold onto the money)
3. Sue in the U.S. Court of International Trade to actually recover their payments
4. Wait years for the legal process to resolve

This is exactly what major corporations are already doing. Costco, for instance, has filed suit demanding refunds on tariffs it paid. But Costco has an army of lawyers and financial resources to wage a multi-year legal battle.

What about the small plumbing supply company in Ohio? The educational toy importer in California? The women’s cycling apparel business in Colorado? Do they have the resources to pursue complex customs litigation?

The Small Business Dilemma

Members of “We Pay the Tariffs”—a coalition of over 800 small businesses that challenged Trump’s duties—responded to Friday’s ruling by demanding immediate refunds.

But “demanding” and “receiving” are very different things.

The reality: Small businesses face a brutal calculation. Legal fees to pursue tariff refunds through the Court of International Trade could easily reach tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. For a company that paid $50,000 in tariffs, spending $75,000 in legal fees to get that money back makes no economic sense.

This creates a perverse outcome where the Supreme Court declares tariffs unconstitutional, but the companies harmed most—small businesses without legal departments—can’t afford to actually recover their losses.

“The government is basically betting that most small importers won’t have the resources to fight for refunds,” said one trade attorney who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They’re probably right.”

What About Consumers?

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: Even if businesses get refunds, consumers who paid higher prices because of tariffs almost certainly won’t see a penny.

Here’s why: Tariffs are taxes on imports, but importers don’t necessarily eat those costs. Instead, they typically pass at least some portion to consumers through higher retail prices.

When Trump’s tariffs took effect in April 2025, prices increased on thousands of products—from furniture to electronics to clothing to food. Consumers paid those higher prices at checkout.

Now the Supreme Court says those tariffs were illegal. But there’s no mechanism to identify which consumers bought tariff-affected products, calculate how much extra they paid, and issue refunds. It’s simply impossible.

So businesses might eventually recoup some of their tariff payments after years of litigation. But the American consumers who ultimately bore much of the cost through higher prices? They’re out of luck.

The Treasury Department’s Silence

The Treasury Department has not commented on how—or whether—it will process refund claims following Friday’s ruling. That silence is telling.

The government has strong incentives to make the refund process as difficult and time-consuming as possible:

• Budget impact: Returning $175 billion would blow a massive hole in federal finances
• Political embarrassment: Massive refunds would be a visible admission of constitutional overreach
• Administrative burden: Processing thousands of refund claims requires resources Treasury may not want to allocate

Expect the government to throw up procedural roadblocks, dispute claim amounts, challenge eligibility requirements, and generally drag its feet at every stage of the refund process.

What Tariffs Actually Got Struck Down?

The Supreme Court’s ruling specifically invalidates tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump used for his most sweeping duties:

Liberation Day Tariffs (April 2025): The “reciprocal” tariffs Trump announced in the Rose Garden, ranging from 10% baseline rates to 145% on Chinese goods (later reduced). These represented Trump’s effort to match what he claimed were unfair trade practices by other nations.

Fentanyl Tariffs: The 25-35% duties on Canada and 25% on Mexico that Trump justified by declaring a national emergency over fentanyl flowing across borders. Also 145% duties on China related to the drug crisis.

What Tariffs Survived?

Critically, Friday’s ruling doesn’t eliminate all of Trump’s trade taxes. Tariffs imposed under other legal authorities remain in place:

• Steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232 (national security grounds)
• Copper import duties under the same authority
• Section 301 tariffs addressing unfair trade practices
• Any duties under other congressionally authorized trade laws

These surviving tariffs still affect billions of dollars in imports and will continue raising costs for businesses and consumers.

Trump’s Next Move: Reimpose Everything Under Different Laws

Here’s the kicker that makes this ruling less impactful than it initially appears: The Trump administration plans to simply reimpose most tariffs using different legal authorities.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already indicated the government will redeploy tariffs under Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), and other trade laws that give presidents explicit tariff authority with congressional authorization.

This process will be slower and more constrained than IEEPA allowed. But ultimately, many of the same products could end up facing similar import taxes—just under different legal justification.

Trump himself hinted at this workaround in a recent New York Times interview, suggesting he might repackage tariffs as “licensing fees” if the Court ruled against him.

Translation: Don’t expect prices to drop dramatically just because the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. New tariffs under different legal authorities could maintain much of the status quo.

Winners and Losers

Winners:

• Large corporations with legal resources to pursue refund litigation (Costco, major retailers, big importers)
• Plaintiffs in the Supreme Court case who may receive automatic refunds
• Congressional authority over taxation, which the Court reaffirmed
• Constitutional law professors who get a landmark separation of powers case to teach

Losers:

• Small businesses that paid tariffs but can’t afford expensive litigation to get refunds
• Consumers who paid higher prices and have no recourse
• Federal budget if significant refunds are ordered (though the government will fight this)
• Trump’s economic agenda, which suffered a major legal and political setback

The Political Fallout

Trump had warned of apocalyptic consequences if the Supreme Court ruled against him.

“If the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!” he wrote on Truth Social in January.

The ruling hands Democrats a powerful talking point heading into the 2026 midterms: The Supreme Court—including two justices Trump appointed—found his signature economic policy unconstitutional. His tariffs were illegal. And now they’re demanding billions back.

But Trump’s ability to reimpose tariffs under other authorities limits the political damage. If most products still face similar import taxes under different legal justification, it’s harder for Democrats to claim meaningful victory.

What This Means for Your Wallet

Short term: Probably not much. Tariffs remain in place while the government figures out next steps. Prices won’t suddenly drop.

Medium term: If refund litigation succeeds and companies recover tariff payments, some businesses might pass savings to consumers through lower prices. But don’t count on it—businesses could just pocket the refunds as recovered costs.

Long term: Expect the Trump administration to reimpose similar tariffs under different laws. Your import costs and consumer prices will likely remain elevated regardless of Friday’s ruling.

Bottom line: The Supreme Court delivered a constitutional victory against executive overreach. But as a practical matter, your costs probably won’t change much. The tariffs may be unconstitutional, but they’re not necessarily going away.

How to Claim a Refund (If You Paid Tariffs)

If your business paid IEEPA tariffs and you want to pursue a refund, here’s what to know:

Step 1: Gather documentation proving you paid duties under the now-invalidated programs. You need customs entry documents showing IEEPA as the legal authority.

Step 2: Consult a customs attorney to evaluate whether potential refunds justify legal costs. This is crucial—don’t assume it’s worth pursuing.

Step 3: File administrative claims with U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Expect denial or lengthy delays.

Step 4: Be prepared to sue in the U.S. Court of International Trade if you want to actually recover money. This requires specialized legal representation.

Step 5: Wait. The process will take years, not months.

Important: Small businesses should seriously evaluate whether the juice is worth the squeeze. Legal fees could exceed potential refunds.

The Bigger Picture

Friday’s Supreme Court decision represents more than just a tariff dispute. It’s a fundamental ruling about presidential power and constitutional limits.

Even in an era of expansive executive claims and a conservative Court that Trump helped shape with three appointments, there are still lines presidents cannot cross. The Constitution gives Congress—not the president—the power to tax. And emergency authorities don’t change that fundamental allocation of power.

That’s a significant principle. Whether it translates into meaningful practical impact depends entirely on how successfully the Trump administration can achieve similar policy outcomes through different legal mechanisms.

For now, the $175 billion question remains unanswered: Who gets refunds, when, and how?

Stay tuned. This story is just beginning.