‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ Lights Up On Tracking With $110M+ Opening Projection – Box Office
Well, it’s finally here: the last big opening of 2025. This morning, 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron directed threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash arrived on tracking three weekends ahead of its Dec. 19 opening and it’s looking pretty good with a $110M debut or $100M-$130M range.
You don’t get to those numbers unless it’s a four-quad movie, and Avatar: Fire and Ash is strong with men and women in first choice (mostly men, but also solid enough with women). Note, it’s behind the first tracking first choice numbers of Avatar: Way of Water, which opened to $134.1M, and that’s just fine. Note, unlike most Marvel Studios movies, Avatar movies are appointment viewing. Audiences seek out the best 3D, Imax and premium large format seats. There’s no Easter Eggs going on ala a Marvel movie which require immediate viewing by fans.
Avatar: Way of Water‘s tracking indicated a $150M-$175M opening three years ago, but the sequel came in below that. What went wrong was that tracking was working off the heat and the comparison to Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: No Way Home the holiday season prior which posted the second biggest domestic opening ever at $260.1M behind Avengers: Endgame ($357.1M). Note, for Avatar: Way of Water to come out and open to $134M, 13 years after the original movie’s $77M opening — well, that was fantastic. When we’re talking about the opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash, consider, Avatar: Way of Water‘s domestic start essentially the ceiling in regards to a first weekend comp.
The current 2025 domestic box office for the period of Jan. 1-through Sunday, Nov. 23 stands at $7.48 billion, +3% over the same frame in 2024. The Thanksgiving harvest of Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good will only propel business higher.
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